Copper cathode production is fully focused on accelerating the depletion of copper concentrate inventory [SMM Analysis]

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At the end of last year, Chinese smelters accumulated a significant amount of copper concentrate raw material inventory in order to meet the needs of winter storage and seize market share. Specifically, by the end of December 2024, the inventory of SMM copper concentrate in nine ports reached 1.31 million tons, mainly in Jinzhou Port (mainlycoverig to smelters in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia), Yantai Port (mainly covering to smelters in Shandong), Fangcheng Port (mainly covering to smelters in Southwest China), and Nanjing Port (mainly covering to smelters in the Yangtze River Basin).

With the increase in China's copper cathode production capacity and the increase in copper cathode production indicators of various smelters, the inventory of copper concentrate, the main raw material for copper cathode, is accelerating. Although the port inventory of copper concentrate cannot fully represent the result of the supply-demand balance of copper concentrate in China, the SMM Jiugang copper concentrate inventory has fallen from its peak of 1.31 million tons at the end of last year to 610000 tons in early March 2025. In less than a quarter, the inventory has been depleted by more than half, which is not bad. This confirms the record breaking monthly production of copper cathode by SMM China. In addition, the smelting volume of scrap copper, which is one of the raw materials for copper cathode, has not increased accordingly. According to SMM estimates, the monthly smelting volume of scrap copper is around 160000 to 170000 metal tons. Moreover, with the implementation of the reverse invoicing policy in China and concerns about the import of scrap copper supply from the China US trade war, the supply side of scrapcopper at home and abroad is under pressure.

SMM expects that as China's monthly production of copper cathode continues to rise, the total contribution of recycled copper smelting to copper cathode production may continue to decrease, and the contribution ratio will decrease. The contribution level of copper concentrate raw materials to copper cathode production will continue to increase, which means that copper concentrate port inventory will continue to decrease.

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